Quick Recap
So far, we’ve seen how differences in rates of return can signal currency price movements.
When the bond spread or interest rate gap between two countries widens, the currency of the country with the higher bond yield or interest rate usually strengthens against the other.
Fixed Income Securities and Currency Strength
Fixed income securities—like bonds—pay fixed amounts at regular intervals.
Countries offering higher returns on these securities tend to attract more investment, making their currencies more appealing compared to those from economies with lower returns.
An Example: Gilts vs. Euribors
Take the U.K.’s gilts and European Euribors:
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If Euribors yield less than gilts, investors are less likely to put money into the eurozone’s fixed income market.
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Instead, they’ll favor higher-yielding assets like gilts.
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As a result, the euro (EUR) may weaken against the British pound (GBP).
This Applies Worldwide
This principle works across any fixed income market and currency pair:
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You could compare Brazil’s bond yields with Russia’s to anticipate movements in the Brazilian real versus the Russian ruble.
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Or compare Irish bond yields to South Korea’s and analyze their currencies accordingly.
Where to Find Bond Yield Data
If you want to explore these correlations yourself, here are good sources for bond data:
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Bloomberg
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Trading Economics
You can also visit government websites for the latest bond yields—they’re usually reliable since they come straight from the source.
Popular Bonds and Their Nicknames
Many countries issue bonds, especially those with major currencies. Here are some well-known examples:
| Country | Bonds and Nicknames |
|---|---|
| United States | U.S. Treasury bonds, Yankee bonds |
| United Kingdom | Gilts, Bulldog bonds |
| Japan | Japanese bonds, Samurai bonds |
| Eurozone | Eurozone bonds, Euribors |
| Germany | Bunds |
| Switzerland | Swiss bonds |
| Canada | Canadian bonds |
| Australia | Australian bonds, kangaroo bonds, Matilda bonds |
| New Zealand | New Zealand bonds, Kiwi bonds |
| Spain | Matador bonds |
A Quick Tip on Comparing Bonds
Make sure you compare bonds with the same maturity period—for example, 5-year gilts with 5-year Euribors—to get accurate insights.
Mixing different terms could lead to misleading conclusions—and nobody wants that!